Can Beijing stop the Ukraine war?

The Australian Financial Review, February 24, 2023

China and the US are the only powers outside Russia and Ukraine who can change the course of this conflict.

The one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine this week is a sombre milestone, reminding us of the enormous human toll of this conflict, but also of the failure of diplomacy.

China’s foreign policy chief Wang Yi with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  AP

The week was marked by uncompromising statements by leaders of Ukraine, Russia and the United States committing their countries to victory, and in the case of the US – an unwavering support for Ukraine, leaving little hope for a peaceful resolution to Europe’s bloodiest conflict since 1945.

It was China that emerged as a surprise peacemaker when Wang Yi, the director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, said that his country would soon reveal a peace initiative for the conflict.

The mere fact that China offers a blueprint to end a conflict in far-away Europe is historic. It is perhaps the most significant departure from China’s tradition of narrow self-interest in its foreign policy. But is China’s peace diplomacy genuine and workable?

No details of China’s initiative have been revealed, but China says its “position paper” will be released within days. To manage expectations, China’s UN Ambassador, Zhang Jun, was at pains to emphasise that China would not be presenting a peace plan, it would simply be stating its position on the conflict.

Some reports suggest China will call to uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the United Nations Charter, while also recognising Russia’s security interests.

It is presumptuous to judge the merits of this initiative we know so little about. The world should give China an opportunity to make its case. But it is fair to ask if China has an interest, motivation, and influence to bring peace to Ukraine.

China also seeks to repair its relationship with Europe to prevent further economic decoupling.

Since the outbreak of the war a year ago, China has faced strident criticism from the West about its support for Russia. The US, Europe and Ukraine repeatedly called for China to use its influence in Kremlin to stop the war.

China has not shown any real interest to be an active peace broker. What has changed?

It is safe to assume that China does want the war in Ukraine to end, as it destabilises global security and economy, damages China’s relationship with Europe, and adds another layer of toxicity to China’s already tense relationship with the US.

China’s motivations are also well understood. Beijing wants to demonstrate its credibility as a great power. China’s reputation has been damaged by its support for Russia, pandemic response, an aggressive foreign policy, and a weakened economy.

This week, Beijing released a concept paper for its flagship foreign policy endeavour – the Global Security Initiative. One of its underlying messages is China’s peacemaking role, supposedly contrasting China with America’s track record of starting and supporting military conflicts.

China also seeks to repair its relationship with Europe to prevent further economic decoupling. The fact that Wang announced the peace initiative in Munich suggests that it was intended for European audiences. But after his tour of Europe, Wang headed to Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin, and prepare for a spring visit to Russia by China’s President Xi Jinping – his first since the war broke out.

China is caught in what Carnegie Endowment for International Peace vice-president Evan Feigenbaum describes as a “Beijing straddle”. China’s commitment to maintaining a “no-limit” partnership with Russia collides with its much more consequential relationships with the US and Europe, the desire to avoid secondary sanctions, and be seen as neutral on Ukraine.

China is clear-eyed about the transactional nature of its relationship with Russia – there is no strategic trust or genuine alignment between the two nations. But Russia’s growing dependency on China suits Beijing. If anything, the war in Ukraine solidified Russia’s position as a junior partner to China.

Moscow, squeezed by Western sanctions, has turned to China to seek alternative markets, capital, and technologies. China may have also concluded that the war in Ukraine usefully distracts Washington from its competition with China. The personal relationship between Putin and Xi is also strong.

But China is unlikely to use its economic and technological heft to punish or restrict Russia. China benefits from discounted Russian energy and commodities. In addition, China’s influence on Putin is limited, especially when it comes to such a central issue for him as Ukraine.

Beijing is interested in a weakened Russia, loyal and dependent on China. But a defeated and unstable Russia is a nightmare scenario for Beijing.

To broker peace, China will also need to work with Ukraine’s allies – the US and the European Union. But both are highly suspicious of China’s intentions. Both are committed to arming and supporting Ukraine economically. The US President’s historic visit to Kyiv this week is a powerful symbol of this commitment.

The US-China relationship, already precarious, has just been damaged by the spying balloon incident. Europe, traditionally more receptive to China, has been alarmed by the Beijing-Kremlin partnership and is seeking to limit Europe’s economic dependency on China.

Both Americans and Europeans are highly critical of China’s relationship with Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week made public his concerns about China’s plans to provide lethal aid to Russia.

China is not trusted in Kyiv either, and we have seen very little engagement between China and Ukraine.

Finally, and most importantly, the situation on the frontline is not conducive to peace. No country at this stage of the conflict can broker peace because the main protagonists are not interested in it.

Ukraine is fighting for the survival of its nationhood. To Putin, this war is an existential struggle for Russia’s national interest and sovereignty. Defeat in Ukraine may lead to a battle for his own and his system’s survival.

Putin’s address to the Russian Federal Assembly this week aims to condition Russia for a long-term, “forever war”. Neither side is willing to compromise, both are stuck in a grinding and bloody trench warfare. Both are preparing for yet another escalation.

It is hard to imagine a peace under such conditions.

So, can China stop the war? Unlikely. But it is highly probable that China – by design or through convergence of events – will play an important role in the diplomatic solution to stop this senseless bloodshed.

After all, China and the US are the only powers outside Russia and Ukraine that can influence the course of this conflict and give peace a chance.

Image: Associated Press